DDM Analysis: COWN

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$15.15 - $21.96	$18.46
Multi-Stage	$25.47 - $27.98	$26.70
Blended Fair Value	$22.58
Current Price	$38.62
Upside	-41.54%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.69	0.57	0.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	20.80%	45.30%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.79%	2.11%	1.12%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	65.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	21.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)	43.91

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	13.17	8.23	4.94
Cash Retained (M)	43.91	43.91	43.91
(-) Cash Required (M)	-13.17	-8.23	-4.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)	30.74	35.68	38.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	31.74	31.74	31.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.97	1.12	1.23
LTM Dividend per Share	0.69	0.69	0.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.97	1.12	1.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.66	1.82	1.92
WACC / Discount Rate	8.74%	8.74%	8.74%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$15.15	$18.46	$21.96
Upside / Downside	-60.78%	-52.21%	-43.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	65.86	65.20	64.54	63.90	63.26	62.63	64.51
Payout Ratio	33.32%	44.66%	55.99%	67.33%	78.66%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	21.94	29.12	36.14	43.02	49.76	56.36	59.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.74%	8.74%	8.74%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	26.50	26.78	27.05
Year 2 PV (M)	29.95	30.57	31.19
Year 3 PV (M)	32.46	33.46	34.49
Year 4 PV (M)	34.18	35.59	37.05
Year 5 PV (M)	35.24	37.08	38.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)	650.17	684.03	719.28
Equity Value (M)	808.50	847.50	888.04
Shares Outstanding (M)	31.74	31.74	31.74
Fair Value	$25.47	$26.70	$27.98
Upside / Downside	-34.05%	-30.87%	-27.56%

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Cowen Inc. (COWN)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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