DDM Analysis: COGN3.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.41 - $6.19	$5.29
Multi-Stage	$6.12 - $6.73	$6.42
Blended Fair Value	$5.86
Current Price	$3.34
Upside	75.37%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.34	0.37	0.30	0.14
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-69.26%	-7.73%	22.65%	115.95%	-58.39%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.61%	3.25%	2.62%	2.17%	1.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,331.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	120.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,211.04

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	266.27	166.42	99.85
Cash Retained (M)	1,211.04	1,211.04	1,211.04
(-) Cash Required (M)	-266.27	-166.42	-99.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	944.78	1,044.63	1,111.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,879.22	1,879.22	1,879.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.50	0.56	0.59
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.50	0.56	0.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.57	0.62	0.66
WACC / Discount Rate	10.71%	10.71%	10.71%
Growth Rate	-1.89%	-0.89%	0.11%
Fair Value	$4.41	$5.29	$6.19
Upside / Downside	32.09%	58.53%	85.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,331.34	1,319.51	1,307.78	1,296.16	1,284.64	1,273.22	1,311.41
Payout Ratio	9.04%	25.23%	41.42%	57.61%	73.81%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	120.30	332.89	541.70	746.77	948.15	1,145.90	1,213.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.71%	10.71%	10.71%
Growth Rate	-1.89%	-0.89%	0.11%
Year 1 PV (M)	297.64	300.68	303.71
Year 2 PV (M)	433.05	441.93	450.89
Year 3 PV (M)	533.78	550.26	567.09
Year 4 PV (M)	605.95	631.04	656.89
Year 5 PV (M)	654.78	688.84	724.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)	8,984.82	9,452.14	9,938.70
Equity Value (M)	11,510.02	12,064.88	12,641.58
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,879.22	1,879.22	1,879.22
Fair Value	$6.12	$6.42	$6.73
Upside / Downside	83.38%	92.22%	101.41%

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Financial Statements

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Cogna Educação S.A. (COGN3.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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