DDM Analysis: CNOB

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$37.21 - $104.49	$57.88
Multi-Stage	$25.77 - $28.12	$26.92
Blended Fair Value	$42.40
Current Price	$24.81
Upside	70.91%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	17.54%	14.67%	0.68	0.64	0.58	0.43	0.35	0.30	0.24	0.24	0.22	0.22
YoY Growth	-	-	5.28%	10.60%	33.93%	22.18%	17.74%	25.83%	0.54%	6.01%	0.79%	29.63%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.78%	3.37%	3.28%	1.35%	1.40%	2.24%	1.19%	0.83%	0.93%	1.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	61.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	29.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)	31.48

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	12.26	7.66	4.60
Cash Retained (M)	31.48	31.48	31.48
(-) Cash Required (M)	-12.26	-7.66	-4.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)	19.22	23.82	26.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	40.35	40.35	40.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.48	0.59	0.67
LTM Dividend per Share	0.74	0.74	0.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.48	0.59	0.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.22	1.33	1.41
WACC / Discount Rate	8.95%	8.95%	8.95%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$37.21	$57.88	$104.49
Upside / Downside	49.99%	133.31%	321.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	61.30	65.28	69.52	74.04	78.86	83.98	86.50
Payout Ratio	48.64%	56.91%	65.18%	73.46%	81.73%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	29.81	37.15	45.32	54.39	64.45	75.58	80.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.95%	8.95%	8.95%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	33.78	34.10	34.42
Year 2 PV (M)	37.47	38.18	38.90
Year 3 PV (M)	40.89	42.06	43.26
Year 4 PV (M)	44.05	45.75	47.49
Year 5 PV (M)	46.98	49.25	51.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)	836.39	876.79	918.73
Equity Value (M)	1,039.55	1,086.12	1,134.40
Shares Outstanding (M)	40.35	40.35	40.35
Fair Value	$25.77	$26.92	$28.12
Upside / Downside	3.85%	8.51%	13.33%

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ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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