Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk (CMRY.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,875.74 - $2,743.26$2,294.22
Multi-Stage$3,382.94 - $3,710.83$3,543.72
Blended Fair Value$2,918.97
Current Price$4,600.00
Upside-36.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%90.0070.0063.0250.410.000.006.300.000.000.00
YoY Growth--28.58%11.08%25.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.98%1.41%1.36%1.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,964,558.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,190,307.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)774,251.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)392,911.60245,569.75147,341.85
Cash Retained (M)774,251.00774,251.00774,251.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-392,911.60-245,569.75-147,341.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)381,339.40528,681.25626,909.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,934.687,934.687,934.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share48.0666.6379.01
LTM Dividend per Share150.01150.01150.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share48.0666.6379.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend198.07216.64229.02
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,875.74$2,294.22$2,743.26
Upside / Downside-59.22%-50.13%-40.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,964,558.001,944,912.421,925,463.301,906,208.661,887,146.581,868,275.111,924,323.36
Payout Ratio60.59%66.47%72.35%78.24%84.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,190,307.001,292,807.381,393,138.721,491,334.151,587,426.371,681,447.601,779,999.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,181,140.871,193,193.331,205,245.79
Year 2 PV (M)1,162,867.181,186,720.251,210,815.47
Year 3 PV (M)1,137,309.301,172,481.361,208,371.19
Year 4 PV (M)1,106,025.381,151,864.961,199,114.87
Year 5 PV (M)1,070,342.361,126,077.571,184,110.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,184,835.1922,287,978.7123,436,605.58
Equity Value (M)26,842,520.2828,118,316.1829,444,263.69
Shares Outstanding (M)7,934.687,934.687,934.68
Fair Value$3,382.94$3,543.72$3,710.83
Upside / Downside-26.46%-22.96%-19.33%

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