Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Corporación Moctezuma, S.A.B. de C.V. (CMOCTEZ.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$745.68 - $1,434.23$1,344.08
Multi-Stage$228.15 - $249.50$238.63
Blended Fair Value$791.35
Current Price$82.00
Upside865.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.64%9.29%5.024.034.084.104.114.865.475.164.132.06
YoY Growth--24.49%-1.22%-0.45%-0.26%-15.44%-11.18%6.00%25.00%100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.21%5.37%7.10%6.45%6.52%8.72%9.16%7.06%6.45%3.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,151.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,269.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,881.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,230.27768.92461.35
Cash Retained (M)1,881.531,881.531,881.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,230.27-768.92-461.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)651.261,112.611,420.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)852.97852.97852.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.761.301.66
LTM Dividend per Share5.015.015.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.761.301.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.776.316.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$745.68$1,344.08$1,434.23
Upside / Downside809.36%1,539.12%1,649.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,151.356,551.186,977.017,430.527,913.508,427.888,680.71
Payout Ratio69.41%73.53%77.65%81.77%85.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,269.824,817.105,417.496,075.576,796.327,585.098,029.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,488.374,530.924,573.46
Year 2 PV (M)4,703.324,792.904,883.33
Year 3 PV (M)4,914.695,055.785,199.54
Year 4 PV (M)5,122.555,319.555,522.18
Year 5 PV (M)5,326.925,584.225,851.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)170,045.13178,258.38186,785.96
Equity Value (M)194,600.99203,541.74212,815.82
Shares Outstanding (M)852.97852.97852.97
Fair Value$228.15$238.63$249.50
Upside / Downside178.23%191.01%204.27%

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