DDM Analysis: CMCL

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$35.58 - $62.37	$46.99
Multi-Stage	$28.82 - $31.40	$30.09
Blended Fair Value	$38.54
Current Price	$36.21
Upside	6.43%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	32.88%	13.01%	0.64	0.58	0.46	0.42	0.24	0.15	0.18	0.17	0.16	0.13
YoY Growth	-	-	10.84%	24.62%	10.37%	77.65%	52.98%	-15.10%	5.65%	10.55%	19.57%	-30.83%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.11%	5.29%	3.04%	2.75%	1.65%	1.66%	3.09%	2.42%	2.19%	3.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	49.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	17.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)	31.80

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9.92	6.20	3.72
Cash Retained (M)	31.80	31.80	31.80
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9.92	-6.20	-3.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)	21.88	25.60	28.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	19.28	19.28	19.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.13	1.33	1.46
LTM Dividend per Share	0.92	0.92	0.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.13	1.33	1.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.06	2.25	2.38
WACC / Discount Rate	11.60%	11.60%	11.60%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$35.58	$46.99	$62.37
Upside / Downside	-1.74%	29.76%	72.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	49.59	52.82	56.25	59.91	63.80	67.95	69.99
Payout Ratio	35.87%	46.70%	57.52%	68.35%	79.17%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	17.79	24.67	32.36	40.95	50.51	61.15	64.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	11.60%	11.60%	11.60%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	21.89	22.10	22.31
Year 2 PV (M)	25.50	25.98	26.47
Year 3 PV (M)	28.64	29.46	30.30
Year 4 PV (M)	31.36	32.57	33.81
Year 5 PV (M)	33.70	35.33	37.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)	414.79	434.82	455.62
Equity Value (M)	555.87	580.25	605.52
Shares Outstanding (M)	19.28	19.28	19.28
Fair Value	$28.82	$30.09	$31.40
Upside / Downside	-20.40%	-16.90%	-13.29%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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