DDM Analysis: CJA.F

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$80.60 - $325.15	$137.75
Multi-Stage	$49.94 - $54.61	$52.23
Blended Fair Value	$94.99
Current Price	$39.72
Upside	139.15%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	18.56%	19.25%	0.53	0.48	0.40	0.35	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.17	0.15	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	11.55%	19.94%	14.42%	23.03%	24.39%	18.97%	11.64%	11.77%	39.58%	19.79%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.33%	1.26%	1.04%	0.97%	0.71%	0.65%	0.62%	0.74%	0.64%	0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,572.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	517.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,054.40

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	514.42	321.51	192.91
Cash Retained (M)	2,054.40	2,054.40	2,054.40
(-) Cash Required (M)	-514.42	-321.51	-192.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,539.98	1,732.89	1,861.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	953.45	953.45	953.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.62	1.82	1.95
LTM Dividend per Share	0.54	0.54	0.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.62	1.82	1.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.16	2.36	2.50
WACC / Discount Rate	8.32%	8.32%	8.32%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$80.60	$137.75	$325.15
Upside / Downside	102.91%	246.80%	718.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,572.10	2,739.29	2,917.34	3,106.97	3,308.92	3,524.00	3,629.72
Payout Ratio	20.13%	34.10%	48.08%	62.05%	76.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	517.70	934.15	1,402.56	1,927.90	2,515.62	3,171.60	3,357.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.32%	8.32%	8.32%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	854.26	862.36	870.46
Year 2 PV (M)	1,172.92	1,195.26	1,217.81
Year 3 PV (M)	1,474.38	1,516.70	1,559.83
Year 4 PV (M)	1,759.31	1,826.97	1,896.56
Year 5 PV (M)	2,028.38	2,126.35	2,228.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)	40,324.23	42,271.91	44,294.12
Equity Value (M)	47,613.48	49,799.54	52,066.85
Shares Outstanding (M)	953.45	953.45	953.45
Fair Value	$49.94	$52.23	$54.61
Upside / Downside	25.73%	31.50%	37.48%

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Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (CJA.F)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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