DDM Analysis: CINR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.07 - $15.61	$13.32
Multi-Stage	$25.00 - $27.60	$26.27
Blended Fair Value	$19.79
Current Price	$16.50
Upside	19.97%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012
DPS	-21.70%	-3.97%	0.34	0.69	1.61	2.30	2.29	1.17	1.12	1.08	3.68	1.54
YoY Growth	-	-	-50.36%	-56.92%	-30.11%	0.22%	96.54%	4.52%	3.76%	-70.78%	138.91%	199.15%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.08%	5.38%	15.50%	9.13%	8.22%	4.09%	4.32%	4.45%	15.21%	6.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	35.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	6.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)	28.60

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	7.08	4.43	2.66
Cash Retained (M)	28.60	28.60	28.60
(-) Cash Required (M)	-7.08	-4.43	-2.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)	21.52	24.18	25.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	19.80	19.80	19.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.09	1.22	1.31
LTM Dividend per Share	0.34	0.34	0.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.09	1.22	1.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.43	1.56	1.65
WACC / Discount Rate	7.35%	7.35%	7.35%
Growth Rate	-4.94%	-3.94%	-2.94%
Fair Value	$11.07	$13.32	$15.61
Upside / Downside	-32.93%	-19.30%	-5.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	35.40	34.01	32.67	31.38	30.15	28.96	29.83
Payout Ratio	19.21%	33.37%	47.53%	61.68%	75.84%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	6.80	11.35	15.53	19.36	22.86	26.06	27.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.35%	7.35%	7.35%
Growth Rate	-4.94%	-3.94%	-2.94%
Year 1 PV (M)	10.46	10.57	10.68
Year 2 PV (M)	13.19	13.47	13.75
Year 3 PV (M)	15.16	15.65	16.14
Year 4 PV (M)	16.51	17.22	17.94
Year 5 PV (M)	17.35	18.28	19.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)	422.33	445.02	468.67
Equity Value (M)	495.01	520.21	546.45
Shares Outstanding (M)	19.80	19.80	19.80
Fair Value	$25.00	$26.27	$27.60
Upside / Downside	51.52%	59.23%	67.26%

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Sisecam Resources LP (CINR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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