DDM Analysis: CGY.TO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$62.56 - $349.81	$119.39
Multi-Stage	$37.27 - $40.69	$38.95
Blended Fair Value	$79.17
Current Price	$50.02
Upside	58.28%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	5.47%	4.61%	1.11	1.14	1.13	1.09	1.01	0.85	0.75	0.74	0.73	0.71
YoY Growth	-	-	-2.86%	1.43%	3.12%	7.94%	19.00%	12.89%	1.56%	1.74%	2.40%	0.70%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.22%	2.36%	1.97%	1.64%	1.64%	1.29%	1.96%	2.52%	2.30%	2.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	20.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	12.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)	7.59

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	4.11	2.57	1.54
Cash Retained (M)	7.59	7.59	7.59
(-) Cash Required (M)	-4.11	-2.57	-1.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3.48	5.02	6.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	11.69	11.69	11.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.30	0.43	0.52
LTM Dividend per Share	1.11	1.11	1.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.30	0.43	0.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.41	1.54	1.63
WACC / Discount Rate	7.87%	7.87%	7.87%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$62.56	$119.39	$349.81
Upside / Downside	25.07%	138.68%	599.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	20.56	21.89	23.32	24.83	26.45	28.16	29.01
Payout Ratio	63.09%	68.47%	73.85%	79.24%	84.62%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	12.97	14.99	17.22	19.68	22.38	25.35	26.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.87%	7.87%	7.87%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	13.77	13.90	14.03
Year 2 PV (M)	14.52	14.80	15.08
Year 3 PV (M)	15.24	15.67	16.12
Year 4 PV (M)	15.91	16.53	17.16
Year 5 PV (M)	16.55	17.35	18.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)	359.62	376.99	395.03
Equity Value (M)	435.62	455.24	475.59
Shares Outstanding (M)	11.69	11.69	11.69
Fair Value	$37.27	$38.95	$40.69
Upside / Downside	-25.48%	-22.13%	-18.65%

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Calian Group Ltd. (CGY.TO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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