DDM Analysis: CG

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$23.90 - $41.33	$31.39
Multi-Stage	$21.74 - $23.63	$22.67
Blended Fair Value	$27.03
Current Price	$62.70
Upside	-56.89%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	26.56%	17.22%	1.36	1.34	1.20	0.96	0.95	0.42	0.35	0.32	0.38	0.68
YoY Growth	-	-	1.06%	12.20%	24.68%	1.28%	126.79%	19.34%	9.91%	-16.18%	-43.86%	144.40%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.12%	2.90%	3.86%	1.97%	2.58%	1.93%	1.91%	1.49%	2.39%	4.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	661.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	504.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)	157.10

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	132.30	82.69	49.61
Cash Retained (M)	157.10	157.10	157.10
(-) Cash Required (M)	-132.30	-82.69	-49.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)	24.80	74.41	107.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	370.18	370.18	370.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.07	0.20	0.29
LTM Dividend per Share	1.36	1.36	1.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.07	0.20	0.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.43	1.56	1.65
WACC / Discount Rate	11.27%	11.27%	11.27%
Growth Rate	4.99%	5.99%	6.99%
Fair Value	$23.90	$31.39	$41.33
Upside / Downside	-61.88%	-49.93%	-34.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	661.50	701.12	743.11	787.61	834.78	884.78	911.32
Payout Ratio	76.25%	79.00%	81.75%	84.50%	87.25%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	504.40	553.89	607.49	665.53	728.35	796.30	842.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	11.27%	11.27%	11.27%
Growth Rate	4.99%	5.99%	6.99%
Year 1 PV (M)	493.10	497.80	502.49
Year 2 PV (M)	481.47	490.69	499.99
Year 3 PV (M)	469.58	483.13	496.93
Year 4 PV (M)	457.50	475.18	493.37
Year 5 PV (M)	445.29	466.91	489.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,701.52	5,978.27	6,265.67
Equity Value (M)	8,048.47	8,391.97	8,747.81
Shares Outstanding (M)	370.18	370.18	370.18
Fair Value	$21.74	$22.67	$23.63
Upside / Downside	-65.32%	-63.84%	-62.31%

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The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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