DDM Analysis: BUR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$17.99 - $76.34	$44.67
Multi-Stage	$10.94 - $11.97	$11.45
Blended Fair Value	$28.06
Current Price	$14.26
Upside	96.75%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-0.78%	6.72%	0.12	0.12	0.12	0.18	0.00	0.13	0.11	0.09	0.08	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.63%	-0.60%	-32.61%	0.00%	-100.00%	15.64%	23.85%	16.33%	9.88%	8.89%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.96%	0.79%	1.53%	1.75%	0.00%	1.36%	0.54%	0.57%	1.19%	2.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	85.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	40.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)	45.05

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	17.20	10.75	6.45
Cash Retained (M)	45.05	45.05	45.05
(-) Cash Required (M)	-17.20	-10.75	-6.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)	27.86	34.31	38.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	222.40	222.40	222.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.15	0.17
LTM Dividend per Share	0.18	0.18	0.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.15	0.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.31	0.34	0.36
WACC / Discount Rate	6.52%	6.52%	6.52%
Growth Rate	4.72%	5.72%	6.72%
Fair Value	$17.99	$44.67	$76.34
Upside / Downside	26.14%	213.24%	435.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	85.99	90.91	96.11	101.61	107.42	113.57	116.98
Payout Ratio	47.60%	56.08%	64.56%	73.04%	81.52%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	40.93	50.98	62.05	74.22	87.57	102.21	108.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.52%	6.52%	6.52%
Growth Rate	4.72%	5.72%	6.72%
Year 1 PV (M)	47.41	47.86	48.31
Year 2 PV (M)	53.65	54.68	55.72
Year 3 PV (M)	59.67	61.40	63.16
Year 4 PV (M)	65.48	68.01	70.62
Year 5 PV (M)	71.06	74.52	78.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,135.20	2,239.11	2,347.03
Equity Value (M)	2,432.48	2,545.59	2,662.96
Shares Outstanding (M)	222.40	222.40	222.40
Fair Value	$10.94	$11.45	$11.97
Upside / Downside	-23.30%	-19.73%	-16.03%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Burford Capital Limited (BUR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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