DDM Analysis: BTPN.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1,699.42 - $2,435.28	$2,059.61
Multi-Stage	$2,286.78 - $2,505.50	$2,394.07
Blended Fair Value	$2,226.84
Current Price	$2,520.00
Upside	-11.63%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	64.25	78.23	13.40	7.16	9.76	0.00	53.97	53.97	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-17.88%	483.92%	87.19%	-26.65%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.21%	2.97%	0.54%	0.27%	0.34%	0.00%	1.49%	1.61%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,572,585.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	642,260.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,930,325.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	514,517.00	321,573.13	192,943.88
Cash Retained (M)	1,930,325.00	1,930,325.00	1,930,325.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-514,517.00	-321,573.13	-192,943.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,415,808.00	1,608,751.88	1,737,381.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	10,645.95	10,645.95	10,645.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share	132.99	151.11	163.20
LTM Dividend per Share	60.33	60.33	60.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share	132.99	151.11	163.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend	193.32	211.44	223.53
WACC / Discount Rate	10.70%	10.70%	10.70%
Growth Rate	-0.61%	0.39%	1.39%
Fair Value	$1,699.42	$2,059.61	$2,435.28
Upside / Downside	-32.56%	-18.27%	-3.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,572,585.00	2,582,642.11	2,592,738.54	2,602,874.43	2,613,049.96	2,623,265.26	2,701,963.21
Payout Ratio	24.97%	37.97%	50.98%	63.99%	76.99%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	642,260.00	980,692.23	1,321,760.74	1,665,480.96	2,011,868.43	2,360,938.73	2,499,315.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.70%	10.70%	10.70%
Growth Rate	-0.61%	0.39%	1.39%
Year 1 PV (M)	877,098.28	885,923.02	894,747.75
Year 2 PV (M)	1,057,265.11	1,078,647.02	1,100,242.98
Year 3 PV (M)	1,191,478.62	1,227,805.07	1,264,862.48
Year 4 PV (M)	1,287,246.39	1,339,838.88	1,394,026.70
Year 5 PV (M)	1,351,021.79	1,420,368.29	1,492,533.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)	18,580,799.25	19,534,531.78	20,527,031.60
Equity Value (M)	24,344,909.45	25,487,114.05	26,673,445.09
Shares Outstanding (M)	10,645.95	10,645.95	10,645.95
Fair Value	$2,286.78	$2,394.07	$2,505.50
Upside / Downside	-9.25%	-5.00%	-0.58%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk (BTPN.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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