Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Banco do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul S.A. (BRSR3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$129.08 - $619.21$280.16
Multi-Stage$77.99 - $85.30$81.58
Blended Fair Value$180.87
Current Price$11.95
Upside1,413.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.33%0.77%0.180.040.040.060.180.110.050.040.000.03
YoY Growth--405.33%-0.99%-35.45%-68.52%60.79%126.88%21.15%0.00%-100.00%-82.67%
Dividend Yield--1.71%0.30%0.42%0.62%1.93%1.26%0.29%0.31%0.00%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,279.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)637.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)641.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)255.87159.9295.95
Cash Retained (M)641.36641.36641.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-255.87-159.92-95.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)385.49481.45545.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)408.97408.97408.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.941.181.33
LTM Dividend per Share1.561.561.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.941.181.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.502.742.89
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.00%6.00%7.00%
Fair Value$129.08$280.16$619.21
Upside / Downside980.20%2,244.44%5,081.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,279.341,356.091,437.441,523.671,615.071,711.961,763.32
Payout Ratio49.87%57.89%65.92%73.95%81.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)637.98785.10947.571,126.711,323.931,540.761,631.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.00%6.00%7.00%
Year 1 PV (M)726.58733.50740.42
Year 2 PV (M)811.58827.11842.79
Year 3 PV (M)893.08918.84945.09
Year 4 PV (M)971.191,008.721,047.33
Year 5 PV (M)1,046.001,096.771,149.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,446.0228,778.1230,161.45
Equity Value (M)31,894.4533,363.0634,886.57
Shares Outstanding (M)408.97408.97408.97
Fair Value$77.99$81.58$85.30
Upside / Downside552.61%582.66%613.83%

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