Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW3.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$338.08 - $1,379.43$579.31
Multi-Stage$270.86 - $295.81$283.11
Blended Fair Value$431.21
Current Price$85.44
Upside404.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.83%8.23%6.138.806.202.032.713.844.263.773.443.11
YoY Growth---30.37%41.89%205.43%-25.01%-29.37%-10.04%13.17%9.57%10.64%11.78%
Dividend Yield--8.32%8.25%6.15%2.58%3.06%8.14%6.12%4.27%4.02%3.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,020.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,430.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)590.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,404.00877.50526.50
Cash Retained (M)590.00590.00590.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,404.00-877.50-526.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)-814.00-287.5063.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)616.94616.94616.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.32-0.470.10
LTM Dividend per Share10.4210.4210.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.32-0.470.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.109.9610.53
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate4.44%5.44%6.44%
Fair Value$338.08$579.31$1,379.43
Upside / Downside295.69%578.03%1,514.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,020.007,401.947,804.668,229.298,677.039,149.129,423.60
Payout Ratio91.60%91.28%90.96%90.64%90.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,430.006,756.227,098.917,458.887,837.018,234.218,716.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate4.44%5.44%6.44%
Year 1 PV (M)6,239.596,299.346,359.08
Year 2 PV (M)6,054.756,171.256,288.86
Year 3 PV (M)5,875.316,045.706,219.35
Year 4 PV (M)5,701.125,922.626,150.52
Year 5 PV (M)5,532.025,801.986,082.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)137,700.07144,419.78151,399.30
Equity Value (M)167,102.87174,660.67182,499.49
Shares Outstanding (M)616.94616.94616.94
Fair Value$270.86$283.11$295.81
Upside / Downside217.01%231.35%246.22%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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