Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$122.89 - $244.18$170.36
Multi-Stage$114.71 - $125.48$119.99
Blended Fair Value$145.18
Current Price$108.96
Upside33.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.78%5.90%1.871.751.611.561.551.551.461.251.081.05
YoY Growth--6.81%8.33%3.46%0.81%-0.27%6.46%16.76%15.81%2.37%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.23%3.07%3.55%3.14%3.27%4.61%2.83%2.42%2.28%2.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,243.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,419.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,824.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,048.60655.38393.23
Cash Retained (M)3,824.003,824.003,824.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,048.60-655.38-393.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,775.403,168.633,430.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)721.47721.47721.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.854.394.76
LTM Dividend per Share1.971.971.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.854.394.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.816.366.72
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate3.90%4.90%5.90%
Fair Value$122.89$170.36$244.18
Upside / Downside12.78%56.35%124.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,243.005,499.805,769.186,051.756,348.166,659.106,858.87
Payout Ratio27.06%39.65%52.24%64.83%77.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,419.002,180.773,013.753,923.104,914.305,993.196,344.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate3.90%4.90%5.90%
Year 1 PV (M)1,985.032,004.142,023.24
Year 2 PV (M)2,497.032,545.332,594.09
Year 3 PV (M)2,958.723,044.983,132.90
Year 4 PV (M)3,373.613,505.383,640.97
Year 5 PV (M)3,744.983,928.704,119.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)68,197.3771,543.0975,018.86
Equity Value (M)82,756.7386,571.6290,529.63
Shares Outstanding (M)721.47721.47721.47
Fair Value$114.71$119.99$125.48
Upside / Downside5.27%10.13%15.16%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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