DDM Analysis: BJRI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$10.53 - $15.45	$12.90
Multi-Stage	$14.19 - $15.60	$14.88
Blended Fair Value	$13.89
Current Price	$30.53
Upside	-54.51%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-73.53%	0.00%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.44	0.41	0.10	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-59.38%	-68.00%	-15.25%	-21.33%	-98.50%	5.39%	318.29%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%	3.14%	0.89%	0.22%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	30.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	30.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	6.18	3.86	2.32
Cash Retained (M)	30.90	30.90	30.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-6.18	-3.86	-2.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)	24.72	27.03	28.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	22.92	22.92	22.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.08	1.18	1.25
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.08	1.18	1.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.08	1.18	1.25
WACC / Discount Rate	9.78%	9.78%	9.78%
Growth Rate	-0.42%	0.58%	1.58%
Fair Value	$10.53	$12.90	$15.45
Upside / Downside	-65.51%	-57.76%	-49.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	30.90	31.08	31.26	31.44	31.63	31.81	32.76
Payout Ratio	0.01%	18.01%	36.01%	54.01%	72.00%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.00	5.60	11.26	16.98	22.77	28.63	30.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.78%	9.78%	9.78%
Growth Rate	-0.42%	0.58%	1.58%
Year 1 PV (M)	5.05	5.10	5.15
Year 2 PV (M)	9.15	9.34	9.53
Year 3 PV (M)	12.45	12.83	13.22
Year 4 PV (M)	15.06	15.68	16.31
Year 5 PV (M)	17.08	17.95	18.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)	266.55	280.20	294.41
Equity Value (M)	325.35	341.10	357.48
Shares Outstanding (M)	22.92	22.92	22.92
Fair Value	$14.19	$14.88	$15.60
Upside / Downside	-53.51%	-51.26%	-48.92%

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BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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