DDM Analysis: BHP.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$33.99 - $53.93	$43.07
Multi-Stage	$63.61 - $69.75	$66.62
Blended Fair Value	$54.85
Current Price	$24.18
Upside	126.83%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-1.42%	-0.15%	1.26	1.51	2.61	3.51	1.56	1.35	2.24	1.03	0.58	0.81
YoY Growth	-	-	-16.57%	-42.15%	-25.67%	125.93%	14.91%	-39.66%	118.30%	78.71%	-29.27%	-36.44%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.21%	5.24%	8.72%	12.34%	4.80%	6.15%	8.68%	4.60%	3.61%	6.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	16,916.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	14,078.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,838.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3,383.20	2,114.50	1,268.70
Cash Retained (M)	2,838.00	2,838.00	2,838.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3,383.20	-2,114.50	-1,268.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-545.20	723.50	1,569.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5,080.00	5,080.00	5,080.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.11	0.14	0.31
LTM Dividend per Share	2.77	2.77	2.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.11	0.14	0.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.66	2.91	3.08
WACC / Discount Rate	7.18%	7.18%	7.18%
Growth Rate	-0.61%	0.39%	1.39%
Fair Value	$33.99	$43.07	$53.93
Upside / Downside	40.55%	78.14%	123.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	16,916.00	16,982.60	17,049.46	17,116.59	17,183.98	17,251.64	17,769.18
Payout Ratio	83.22%	84.58%	85.93%	87.29%	88.64%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	14,078.00	14,363.61	14,651.25	14,940.93	15,232.67	15,526.47	16,436.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.18%	7.18%	7.18%
Growth Rate	-0.61%	0.39%	1.39%
Year 1 PV (M)	13,267.32	13,400.80	13,534.28
Year 2 PV (M)	12,500.11	12,752.90	13,008.23
Year 3 PV (M)	11,774.34	12,133.31	12,499.51
Year 4 PV (M)	11,088.03	11,541.04	12,007.78
Year 5 PV (M)	10,439.28	10,975.11	11,532.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)	264,084.35	277,639.13	291,744.87
Equity Value (M)	323,153.43	338,442.29	354,327.38
Shares Outstanding (M)	5,080.00	5,080.00	5,080.00
Fair Value	$63.61	$66.62	$69.75
Upside / Downside	163.08%	175.53%	188.46%

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BHP Group Limited (BHP.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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