DDM Analysis: BGCP

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.31 - $4.69	$3.99
Multi-Stage	$4.92 - $5.41	$5.16
Blended Fair Value	$4.57
Current Price	$4.43
Upside	3.24%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-35.64%	-10.73%	0.07	0.00	0.09	0.14	0.26	0.63	0.48	0.41	0.35	0.27
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	-100.00%	-34.98%	-45.55%	-59.64%	32.26%	15.66%	17.17%	30.02%	24.95%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.58%	0.00%	1.73%	3.16%	5.29%	25.10%	8.66%	4.78%	4.83%	4.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	241.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	28.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)	213.02

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	48.35	30.22	18.13
Cash Retained (M)	213.02	213.02	213.02
(-) Cash Required (M)	-48.35	-30.22	-18.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	164.67	182.80	194.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	483.95	483.95	483.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.34	0.38	0.40
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.34	0.38	0.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.40	0.44	0.46
WACC / Discount Rate	9.85%	9.85%	9.85%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$3.31	$3.99	$4.69
Upside / Downside	-25.39%	-9.96%	5.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	241.75	239.33	236.94	234.57	232.22	229.90	236.79
Payout Ratio	11.88%	27.51%	43.13%	58.75%	74.38%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	28.73	65.83	102.19	137.81	172.72	206.91	219.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.85%	9.85%	9.85%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	59.32	59.93	60.53
Year 2 PV (M)	82.98	84.69	86.41
Year 3 PV (M)	100.85	103.97	107.15
Year 4 PV (M)	113.90	118.62	123.49
Year 5 PV (M)	122.96	129.36	136.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,900.68	1,999.65	2,102.70
Equity Value (M)	2,380.69	2,496.22	2,616.31
Shares Outstanding (M)	483.95	483.95	483.95
Fair Value	$4.92	$5.16	$5.41
Upside / Downside	11.05%	16.43%	22.04%

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Financial Statements

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BGC Partners, Inc. (BGCP)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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