DDM Analysis: BCEI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$183.42 - $596.35	$297.31
Multi-Stage	$128.72 - $140.17	$134.34
Blended Fair Value	$215.83
Current Price	$56.10
Upside	284.71%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	5.28	7.05	5.74	0.65	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-25.21%	22.98%	783.39%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	9.40%	12.57%	10.22%	1.16%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	638.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	627.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)	10.17

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	127.62	79.76	47.86
Cash Retained (M)	10.17	10.17	10.17
(-) Cash Required (M)	-127.62	-79.76	-47.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-117.46	-69.60	-37.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	93.61	93.61	93.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-1.25	-0.74	-0.40
LTM Dividend per Share	6.71	6.71	6.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-1.25	-0.74	-0.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.45	5.96	6.31
WACC / Discount Rate	8.64%	8.64%	8.64%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$183.42	$297.31	$596.35
Upside / Downside	226.96%	429.96%	963.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	638.11	679.59	723.76	770.80	820.91	874.27	900.49
Payout Ratio	98.41%	96.73%	95.04%	93.36%	91.68%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	627.94	657.33	687.89	719.64	752.62	786.84	832.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.64%	8.64%	8.64%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	599.39	605.08	610.76
Year 2 PV (M)	571.97	582.86	593.86
Year 3 PV (M)	545.63	561.29	577.25
Year 4 PV (M)	520.33	540.34	560.92
Year 5 PV (M)	496.04	520.00	544.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)	9,316.05	9,766.02	10,233.21
Equity Value (M)	12,049.42	12,575.59	13,120.88
Shares Outstanding (M)	93.61	93.61	93.61
Fair Value	$128.72	$134.34	$140.17
Upside / Downside	129.45%	139.47%	149.86%

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Financial Statements

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Civitas Resources, Inc. (BCEI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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