DDM Analysis: BBTN.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5,841.27 - $18,093.12	$9,345.70
Multi-Stage	$7,504.64 - $8,243.64	$7,867.12
Blended Fair Value	$8,606.41
Current Price	$1,285.00
Upside	569.76%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.51%	4.10%	49.89	43.39	16.93	0.00	1.49	40.01	43.14	37.32	26.38	15.90
YoY Growth	-	-	14.97%	156.29%	0.00%	-100.00%	-96.27%	-7.25%	15.60%	41.49%	65.91%	-52.39%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.64%	2.91%	1.38%	0.00%	0.09%	4.94%	1.88%	1.11%	1.21%	0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,227,615.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	751,833.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,475,782.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	645,523.00	403,451.88	242,071.13
Cash Retained (M)	2,475,782.00	2,475,782.00	2,475,782.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-645,523.00	-403,451.88	-242,071.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,830,259.00	2,072,330.13	2,233,710.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	14,034.44	14,034.44	14,034.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share	130.41	147.66	159.16
LTM Dividend per Share	53.57	53.57	53.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share	130.41	147.66	159.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend	183.98	201.23	212.73
WACC / Discount Rate	5.74%	5.74%	5.74%
Growth Rate	2.51%	3.51%	4.51%
Fair Value	$5,841.27	$9,345.70	$18,093.12
Upside / Downside	354.57%	627.29%	1,308.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,227,615.00	3,340,929.34	3,458,221.89	3,579,632.32	3,705,305.21	3,835,390.18	3,950,451.88
Payout Ratio	23.29%	36.64%	49.98%	63.32%	76.66%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	751,833.00	1,223,949.82	1,728,289.90	2,266,533.89	2,840,440.75	3,451,851.16	3,654,167.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.74%	5.74%	5.74%
Growth Rate	2.51%	3.51%	4.51%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,146,331.08	1,157,513.62	1,168,696.16
Year 2 PV (M)	1,516,035.95	1,545,758.29	1,575,769.18
Year 3 PV (M)	1,862,093.90	1,917,121.81	1,973,223.29
Year 4 PV (M)	2,185,604.37	2,272,143.33	2,361,227.08
Year 5 PV (M)	2,487,621.66	2,611,346.77	2,739,946.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)	96,125,764.76	100,906,704.88	105,876,009.55
Equity Value (M)	105,323,451.72	110,410,588.70	115,694,871.78
Shares Outstanding (M)	14,034.44	14,034.44	14,034.44
Fair Value	$7,504.64	$7,867.12	$8,243.64
Upside / Downside	484.02%	512.23%	541.53%

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Financial Statements

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PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk (BBTN.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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