DDM Analysis: BBCA.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$8,698.10 - $18,495.82	$12,359.51
Multi-Stage	$6,745.08 - $7,345.30	$7,039.85
Blended Fair Value	$9,699.68
Current Price	$8,675.00
Upside	11.81%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	31.34%	27.21%	277.51	212.51	155.01	111.40	110.60	71.00	52.00	42.00	35.00	30.60
YoY Growth	-	-	30.59%	37.10%	39.14%	0.72%	55.77%	36.54%	23.81%	20.00%	14.38%	22.40%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.26%	2.16%	1.77%	1.40%	1.78%	1.29%	0.95%	0.90%	1.06%	1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	56,976,535.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	36,982,515.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	19,994,020.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11,395,307.00	7,122,066.88	4,273,240.13
Cash Retained (M)	19,994,020.00	19,994,020.00	19,994,020.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11,395,307.00	-7,122,066.88	-4,273,240.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	8,598,713.00	12,871,953.13	15,720,779.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	123,270.28	123,270.28	123,270.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share	69.75	104.42	127.53
LTM Dividend per Share	300.01	300.01	300.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	69.75	104.42	127.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend	369.77	404.43	427.54
WACC / Discount Rate	9.98%	9.98%	9.98%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$8,698.10	$12,359.51	$18,495.82
Upside / Downside	0.27%	42.47%	113.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	56,976,535.00	60,680,009.78	64,624,210.41	68,824,784.09	73,298,395.05	78,062,790.73	80,404,674.45
Payout Ratio	64.91%	69.93%	74.94%	79.96%	84.98%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	36,982,515.00	42,431,504.54	48,432,611.59	55,034,589.46	62,290,196.66	70,256,511.66	74,374,323.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.98%	9.98%	9.98%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	38,217,132.50	38,579,380.20	38,941,627.90
Year 2 PV (M)	39,289,565.08	40,037,920.94	40,793,336.76
Year 3 PV (M)	40,210,986.84	41,365,299.76	42,541,494.75
Year 4 PV (M)	40,991,930.25	42,568,364.21	44,189,835.78
Year 5 PV (M)	41,642,319.94	43,653,659.56	45,741,977.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)	631,116,114.85	661,599,259.19	693,249,065.20
Equity Value (M)	831,468,049.46	867,803,883.86	905,457,338.28
Shares Outstanding (M)	123,270.28	123,270.28	123,270.28
Fair Value	$6,745.08	$7,039.85	$7,345.30
Upside / Downside	-22.25%	-18.85%	-15.33%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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