DDM Analysis: AXP

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$302.26 - $678.72	$437.77
Multi-Stage	$217.13 - $237.16	$226.97
Blended Fair Value	$332.37
Current Price	$332.16
Upside	0.06%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	7.05%	6.74%	2.86	2.54	2.24	2.07	2.11	2.03	1.89	1.79	1.73	1.68
YoY Growth	-	-	12.30%	13.74%	8.08%	-1.76%	3.66%	7.40%	5.84%	3.65%	2.99%	12.58%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.06%	1.12%	1.36%	1.11%	1.49%	2.37%	1.69%	1.92%	2.18%	2.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	10,541.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,198.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	8,343.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,108.20	1,317.63	790.58
Cash Retained (M)	8,343.00	8,343.00	8,343.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,108.20	-1,317.63	-790.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)	6,234.80	7,025.38	7,552.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	699.50	699.50	699.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	8.91	10.04	10.80
LTM Dividend per Share	3.14	3.14	3.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share	8.91	10.04	10.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend	12.06	13.19	13.94
WACC / Discount Rate	9.71%	9.71%	9.71%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$302.26	$437.77	$678.72
Upside / Downside	-9.00%	31.80%	104.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	10,541.00	11,226.17	11,955.87	12,733.00	13,560.64	14,442.08	14,875.35
Payout Ratio	20.85%	34.68%	48.51%	62.34%	76.17%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,198.00	3,893.41	5,799.93	7,937.85	10,329.19	12,997.88	13,759.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.71%	9.71%	9.71%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,515.56	3,548.89	3,582.21
Year 2 PV (M)	4,728.83	4,818.90	4,909.82
Year 3 PV (M)	5,843.85	6,011.61	6,182.54
Year 4 PV (M)	6,866.38	7,130.45	7,402.05
Year 5 PV (M)	7,801.89	8,178.72	8,569.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)	123,128.16	129,075.30	135,250.04
Equity Value (M)	151,884.67	158,763.85	165,896.64
Shares Outstanding (M)	699.50	699.50	699.50
Fair Value	$217.13	$226.97	$237.16
Upside / Downside	-34.63%	-31.67%	-28.60%

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American Express Company (AXP)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener