DDM Analysis: AWR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$193.27 - $673.22	$630.90
Multi-Stage	$87.99 - $96.19	$92.02
Blended Fair Value	$361.46
Current Price	$73.32
Upside	392.99%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	9.43%	7.63%	1.74	1.59	1.47	1.34	1.23	1.11	1.01	0.95	0.87	0.85
YoY Growth	-	-	9.51%	8.59%	9.03%	9.50%	10.55%	9.67%	6.92%	9.01%	2.20%	1.80%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.22%	2.22%	1.65%	1.51%	1.62%	1.36%	1.44%	1.79%	1.96%	2.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	130.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	72.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)	57.41

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	26.03	16.27	9.76
Cash Retained (M)	57.41	57.41	57.41
(-) Cash Required (M)	-26.03	-16.27	-9.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)	31.38	41.14	47.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	38.44	38.44	38.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.82	1.07	1.24
LTM Dividend per Share	1.89	1.89	1.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.82	1.07	1.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.71	2.96	3.13
WACC / Discount Rate	6.98%	6.98%	6.98%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$193.27	$630.90	$673.22
Upside / Downside	163.60%	760.48%	818.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	130.14	138.59	147.60	157.20	167.42	178.30	183.65
Payout Ratio	55.89%	62.71%	69.53%	76.35%	83.18%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	72.73	86.91	102.63	120.03	139.25	160.47	169.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.98%	6.98%	6.98%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	80.48	81.24	82.01
Year 2 PV (M)	88.00	89.68	91.37
Year 3 PV (M)	95.30	98.04	100.83
Year 4 PV (M)	102.38	106.32	110.37
Year 5 PV (M)	109.25	114.53	120.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,907.17	3,047.59	3,193.38
Equity Value (M)	3,382.59	3,537.40	3,697.96
Shares Outstanding (M)	38.44	38.44	38.44
Fair Value	$87.99	$92.02	$96.19
Upside / Downside	20.01%	25.50%	31.19%

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American States Water Company (AWR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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