DDM Analysis: AVIA.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$384.60 - $692.21	$513.34
Multi-Stage	$733.85 - $805.57	$769.03
Blended Fair Value	$641.18
Current Price	$408.00
Upside	57.15%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	2.36%	0.00%	22.12	22.36	18.30	38.56	11.49	19.69	0.00	19.75	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-1.09%	22.22%	-52.55%	235.71%	-41.67%	199,999,900.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.45%	4.07%	3.08%	4.94%	1.33%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,693,711.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,337,793.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	355,918.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	338,742.20	211,713.88	127,028.33
Cash Retained (M)	355,918.00	355,918.00	355,918.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-338,742.20	-211,713.88	-127,028.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)	17,175.80	144,204.13	228,889.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	60,948.30	60,948.30	60,948.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.28	2.37	3.76
LTM Dividend per Share	21.95	21.95	21.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.28	2.37	3.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend	22.23	24.32	25.71
WACC / Discount Rate	6.16%	6.16%	6.16%
Growth Rate	0.36%	1.36%	2.36%
Fair Value	$384.60	$513.34	$692.21
Upside / Downside	-5.74%	25.82%	69.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,693,711.00	1,716,668.03	1,739,936.23	1,763,519.81	1,787,423.06	1,811,650.29	1,865,999.80
Payout Ratio	78.99%	81.19%	83.39%	85.59%	87.80%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,337,793.00	1,393,740.90	1,450,959.69	1,509,473.55	1,569,307.06	1,630,485.26	1,726,049.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.16%	6.16%	6.16%
Growth Rate	0.36%	1.36%	2.36%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,299,959.48	1,312,913.04	1,325,866.59
Year 2 PV (M)	1,262,266.02	1,287,547.26	1,313,079.17
Year 3 PV (M)	1,224,810.27	1,261,790.50	1,299,507.69
Year 4 PV (M)	1,187,678.82	1,235,730.00	1,285,224.68
Year 5 PV (M)	1,150,948.08	1,209,445.92	1,270,298.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)	38,601,432.77	40,563,381.01	42,604,304.55
Equity Value (M)	44,727,095.44	46,870,807.73	49,098,281.19
Shares Outstanding (M)	60,948.30	60,948.30	60,948.30
Fair Value	$733.85	$769.03	$805.57
Upside / Downside	79.87%	88.49%	97.44%

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Financial Statements

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PT Avia Avian Tbk (AVIA.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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