DDM Analysis: AUBN

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$18.11 - $31.50	$23.85
Multi-Stage	$37.13 - $40.78	$38.92
Blended Fair Value	$31.38
Current Price	$28.44
Upside	10.35%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.08%	1.87%	1.08	1.08	1.06	1.05	1.04	1.02	1.00	0.96	0.94	0.92
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.08%	1.51%	1.03%	1.21%	1.76%	2.20%	4.36%	2.23%	2.28%	2.30%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.00%	5.69%	4.70%	3.17%	2.71%	2.44%	2.63%	2.46%	2.84%	3.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1.15

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	0.98	0.62	0.37
Cash Retained (M)	1.15	1.15	1.15
(-) Cash Required (M)	-0.98	-0.62	-0.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)	0.17	0.54	0.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3.49	3.49	3.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.15	0.22
LTM Dividend per Share	1.08	1.08	1.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.15	0.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.13	1.23	1.30
WACC / Discount Rate	6.09%	6.09%	6.09%
Growth Rate	-0.13%	0.87%	1.87%
Fair Value	$18.11	$23.85	$31.50
Upside / Downside	-36.31%	-16.14%	10.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4.92	4.97	5.01	5.05	5.10	5.14	5.30
Payout Ratio	76.62%	79.30%	81.97%	84.65%	87.32%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3.77	3.94	4.11	4.28	4.45	4.63	4.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.09%	6.09%	6.09%
Growth Rate	-0.13%	0.87%	1.87%
Year 1 PV (M)	3.68	3.71	3.75
Year 2 PV (M)	3.58	3.65	3.72
Year 3 PV (M)	3.48	3.58	3.69
Year 4 PV (M)	3.38	3.51	3.66
Year 5 PV (M)	3.28	3.44	3.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)	112.36	118.10	124.07
Equity Value (M)	129.74	136.00	142.50
Shares Outstanding (M)	3.49	3.49	3.49
Fair Value	$37.13	$38.92	$40.78
Upside / Downside	30.55%	36.84%	43.39%

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Auburn National Bancorporation, Inc. (AUBN)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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