DDM Analysis: ASGR.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1,071.37 - $1,511.44	$1,289.33
Multi-Stage	$3,073.16 - $3,392.08	$3,229.38
Blended Fair Value	$2,259.36
Current Price	$1,165.00
Upside	93.94%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-6.71%	-2.60%	53.00	34.00	27.00	16.00	54.00	74.99	80.99	73.99	119.99	76.99
YoY Growth	-	-	55.88%	25.92%	68.75%	-70.37%	-28.00%	-7.41%	9.46%	-38.33%	55.84%	11.59%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.46%	4.00%	2.83%	1.84%	6.71%	9.20%	5.83%	4.71%	6.22%	4.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	235,362.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	133,529.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	101,833.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	47,072.40	29,420.25	17,652.15
Cash Retained (M)	101,833.00	101,833.00	101,833.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-47,072.40	-29,420.25	-17,652.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	54,760.60	72,412.75	84,180.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,348.89	1,348.89	1,348.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share	40.60	53.68	62.41
LTM Dividend per Share	98.99	98.99	98.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share	40.60	53.68	62.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend	139.59	152.67	161.40
WACC / Discount Rate	6.45%	6.45%	6.45%
Growth Rate	-5.82%	-4.82%	-3.82%
Fair Value	$1,071.37	$1,289.33	$1,511.44
Upside / Downside	-8.04%	10.67%	29.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	235,362.00	224,014.12	213,213.37	202,933.37	193,149.02	183,836.42	189,351.51
Payout Ratio	56.73%	63.39%	70.04%	76.69%	83.35%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	133,529.00	141,995.30	149,334.80	155,636.47	160,983.32	165,452.78	175,150.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.45%	6.45%	6.45%
Growth Rate	-5.82%	-4.82%	-3.82%
Year 1 PV (M)	131,991.31	133,392.81	134,794.31
Year 2 PV (M)	129,033.88	131,788.62	134,572.46
Year 3 PV (M)	125,004.44	129,028.81	133,138.64
Year 4 PV (M)	120,189.44	125,376.07	130,728.78
Year 5 PV (M)	114,823.52	121,050.41	127,544.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,524,316.80	3,715,440.96	3,914,768.39
Equity Value (M)	4,145,359.38	4,356,077.69	4,575,547.15
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,348.89	1,348.89	1,348.89
Fair Value	$3,073.16	$3,229.38	$3,392.08
Upside / Downside	163.79%	177.20%	191.17%

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PT Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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