DDM Analysis: ARCH

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$298.27 - $1,299.25	$518.43
Multi-Stage	$188.10 - $205.39	$196.59
Blended Fair Value	$357.51
Current Price	$138.16
Upside	158.76%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
DPS	45.82%	23.25%	11.13	24.64	0.21	0.45	1.63	1.69	1.32	0.00	0.00	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	-54.84%	11,816.24%	-53.55%	-72.72%	-3.35%	28.31%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-91.67%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.98%	18.74%	0.15%	1.07%	5.65%	1.84%	1.43%	0.00%	0.00%	0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	179.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	91.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)	88.17

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	35.89	22.43	13.46
Cash Retained (M)	88.17	88.17	88.17
(-) Cash Required (M)	-35.89	-22.43	-13.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)	52.28	65.74	74.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	18.52	18.52	18.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.82	3.55	4.03
LTM Dividend per Share	4.93	4.93	4.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.82	3.55	4.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	7.75	8.48	8.96
WACC / Discount Rate	8.24%	8.24%	8.24%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$298.27	$518.43	$1,299.25
Upside / Downside	115.89%	275.24%	840.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	179.45	191.12	203.54	216.77	230.86	245.86	253.24
Payout Ratio	50.87%	58.69%	66.52%	74.35%	82.17%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	91.28	112.17	135.39	161.16	189.70	221.28	234.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.24%	8.24%	8.24%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	102.66	103.63	104.60
Year 2 PV (M)	113.40	115.56	117.74
Year 3 PV (M)	123.53	127.08	130.69
Year 4 PV (M)	133.08	138.20	143.46
Year 5 PV (M)	142.06	148.92	156.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,869.21	3,007.79	3,151.68
Equity Value (M)	3,483.94	3,641.18	3,804.22
Shares Outstanding (M)	18.52	18.52	18.52
Fair Value	$188.10	$196.59	$205.39
Upside / Downside	36.14%	42.29%	48.66%

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Arch Resources, Inc. (ARCH)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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