DDM Analysis: ARCB

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$57.73 - $101.49	$76.32
Multi-Stage	$47.53 - $51.92	$49.68
Blended Fair Value	$63.00
Current Price	$69.87
Upside	-9.83%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.65%	10.66%	0.48	0.49	0.46	0.35	0.35	0.35	0.35	0.35	0.36	0.29
YoY Growth	-	-	-2.14%	6.57%	33.06%	-0.22%	-0.37%	-0.69%	-0.24%	-0.65%	21.66%	66.67%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.69%	0.35%	0.50%	0.43%	0.50%	2.00%	1.08%	1.11%	1.37%	1.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	97.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	11.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)	86.17

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	19.45	12.16	7.29
Cash Retained (M)	86.17	86.17	86.17
(-) Cash Required (M)	-19.45	-12.16	-7.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)	66.72	74.01	78.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	23.32	23.32	23.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.86	3.17	3.38
LTM Dividend per Share	0.48	0.48	0.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.86	3.17	3.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.34	3.65	3.86
WACC / Discount Rate	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%
Growth Rate	4.94%	5.94%	6.94%
Fair Value	$57.73	$76.32	$101.49
Upside / Downside	-17.38%	9.24%	45.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	97.25	103.02	109.14	115.62	122.48	129.76	133.65
Payout Ratio	11.39%	27.11%	42.84%	58.56%	74.28%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	11.08	27.93	46.75	67.70	90.98	116.78	123.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%
Growth Rate	4.94%	5.94%	6.94%
Year 1 PV (M)	24.93	25.17	25.40
Year 2 PV (M)	37.23	37.94	38.66
Year 3 PV (M)	48.11	49.50	50.92
Year 4 PV (M)	57.70	59.93	62.22
Year 5 PV (M)	66.09	69.30	72.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)	874.28	916.73	960.83
Equity Value (M)	1,108.33	1,158.57	1,210.66
Shares Outstanding (M)	23.32	23.32	23.32
Fair Value	$47.53	$49.68	$51.92
Upside / Downside	-31.98%	-28.89%	-25.70%

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ArcBest Corporation (ARCB)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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