DDM Analysis: AOS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$54.07 - $98.83	$72.61
Multi-Stage	$58.60 - $64.12	$61.31
Blended Fair Value	$66.96
Current Price	$73.41
Upside	-8.79%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.00%	13.35%	1.33	1.28	1.23	1.19	1.11	1.04	0.91	0.68	0.59	0.47
YoY Growth	-	-	3.76%	3.56%	4.17%	7.18%	6.37%	14.68%	34.26%	15.08%	24.19%	24.63%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.03%	1.44%	1.79%	1.86%	1.64%	2.75%	1.68%	1.06%	1.15%	1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	530.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	194.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	335.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	106.10	66.31	39.79
Cash Retained (M)	335.90	335.90	335.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-106.10	-66.31	-39.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)	229.80	269.59	296.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	143.51	143.51	143.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.60	1.88	2.06
LTM Dividend per Share	1.36	1.36	1.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.60	1.88	2.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.96	3.23	3.42
WACC / Discount Rate	8.63%	8.63%	8.63%
Growth Rate	3.00%	4.00%	5.00%
Fair Value	$54.07	$72.61	$98.83
Upside / Downside	-26.34%	-1.09%	34.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	530.50	551.71	573.76	596.70	620.55	645.36	664.72
Payout Ratio	36.68%	47.35%	58.01%	68.67%	79.34%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	194.60	261.21	332.84	409.77	492.33	580.83	614.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.63%	8.63%	8.63%
Growth Rate	3.00%	4.00%	5.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	238.15	240.46	242.77
Year 2 PV (M)	276.65	282.05	287.50
Year 3 PV (M)	310.52	319.66	328.97
Year 4 PV (M)	340.14	353.54	367.34
Year 5 PV (M)	365.85	383.96	402.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,878.35	7,218.81	7,572.61
Equity Value (M)	8,409.67	8,798.48	9,201.97
Shares Outstanding (M)	143.51	143.51	143.51
Fair Value	$58.60	$61.31	$64.12
Upside / Downside	-20.17%	-16.48%	-12.65%

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A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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