DDM Analysis: AMGN

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$408.56 - $1,963.24	$724.58
Multi-Stage	$305.07 - $333.40	$318.97
Blended Fair Value	$521.78
Current Price	$282.20
Upside	84.90%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.61%	10.07%	8.92	8.41	7.75	7.41	6.93	6.48	6.48	6.21	5.54	4.42
YoY Growth	-	-	6.06%	8.58%	4.56%	6.87%	7.01%	0.06%	4.22%	12.24%	25.13%	29.44%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.86%	2.97%	3.21%	3.06%	2.79%	3.20%	3.38%	3.65%	3.37%	2.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	7,005.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5,046.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,959.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,401.00	875.63	525.38
Cash Retained (M)	1,959.00	1,959.00	1,959.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,401.00	-875.63	-525.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)	558.00	1,083.38	1,433.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	541.50	541.50	541.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.03	2.00	2.65
LTM Dividend per Share	9.32	9.32	9.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.03	2.00	2.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend	10.35	11.32	11.97
WACC / Discount Rate	7.26%	7.26%	7.26%
Growth Rate	4.61%	5.61%	6.61%
Fair Value	$408.56	$724.58	$1,963.24
Upside / Downside	44.78%	156.76%	595.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	7,005.00	7,397.82	7,812.67	8,250.79	8,713.47	9,202.10	9,478.16
Payout Ratio	72.03%	75.63%	79.22%	82.81%	86.41%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5,046.00	5,594.78	6,189.24	6,832.78	7,529.03	8,281.89	8,767.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.26%	7.26%	7.26%
Growth Rate	4.61%	5.61%	6.61%
Year 1 PV (M)	5,166.82	5,216.21	5,265.61
Year 2 PV (M)	5,278.59	5,380.00	5,482.37
Year 3 PV (M)	5,381.69	5,537.51	5,696.31
Year 4 PV (M)	5,476.47	5,688.90	5,907.45
Year 5 PV (M)	5,563.28	5,834.33	6,115.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)	138,328.44	145,067.83	152,067.38
Equity Value (M)	165,195.29	172,724.77	180,534.94
Shares Outstanding (M)	541.50	541.50	541.50
Fair Value	$305.07	$318.97	$333.40
Upside / Downside	8.10%	13.03%	18.14%

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Amgen Inc. (AMGN)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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