DDM Analysis: ALVAP.PA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12.83 - $19.36	$15.92
Multi-Stage	$25.46 - $28.03	$26.72
Blended Fair Value	$21.32
Current Price	$4.86
Upside	338.67%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.15	0.10	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	50.11%	5.52%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.85%	1.24%	0.94%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3.57

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	0.94	0.59	0.35
Cash Retained (M)	3.57	3.57	3.57
(-) Cash Required (M)	-0.94	-0.59	-0.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2.63	2.98	3.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3.13	3.13	3.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.84	0.95	1.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.36	0.36	0.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.84	0.95	1.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.20	1.31	1.39
WACC / Discount Rate	7.17%	7.17%	7.17%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$12.83	$15.92	$19.36
Upside / Downside	164.08%	227.48%	298.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4.70	4.66	4.61	4.56	4.52	4.47	4.61
Payout Ratio	24.09%	37.27%	50.45%	63.64%	76.82%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1.13	1.74	2.33	2.90	3.47	4.02	4.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.17%	7.17%	7.17%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	1.60	1.62	1.64
Year 2 PV (M)	1.98	2.02	2.07
Year 3 PV (M)	2.29	2.36	2.43
Year 4 PV (M)	2.53	2.63	2.74
Year 5 PV (M)	2.71	2.85	2.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)	68.62	72.20	75.92
Equity Value (M)	79.73	83.68	87.78
Shares Outstanding (M)	3.13	3.13	3.13
Fair Value	$25.46	$26.72	$28.03
Upside / Downside	423.92%	449.86%	476.83%

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Kumulus Vape S.A. (ALVAP.PA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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