DDM Analysis: ALUP11.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$82.15 - $221.00	$126.16
Multi-Stage	$96.55 - $105.66	$101.02
Blended Fair Value	$113.59
Current Price	$31.99
Upside	255.09%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	16.69%	-0.74%	2.91	3.40	3.25	2.68	2.00	1.34	1.55	1.33	1.49	1.45
YoY Growth	-	-	-14.50%	4.67%	20.99%	34.09%	48.99%	-13.35%	16.68%	-11.01%	3.23%	-53.78%
Dividend Yield	-	-	10.40%	11.94%	13.58%	10.94%	8.78%	6.72%	7.52%	8.43%	8.20%	11.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,163.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,118.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)	45.22

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	232.67	145.42	87.25
Cash Retained (M)	45.22	45.22	45.22
(-) Cash Required (M)	-232.67	-145.42	-87.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-187.45	-100.20	-42.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	327.63	327.63	327.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.57	-0.31	-0.13
LTM Dividend per Share	3.41	3.41	3.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.57	-0.31	-0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.84	3.11	3.28
WACC / Discount Rate	6.49%	6.49%	6.49%
Growth Rate	2.93%	3.93%	4.93%
Fair Value	$82.15	$126.16	$221.00
Upside / Downside	156.79%	294.39%	590.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,163.36	1,209.12	1,256.69	1,306.13	1,357.51	1,410.92	1,453.24
Payout Ratio	96.11%	94.89%	93.67%	92.45%	91.22%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,118.14	1,147.34	1,177.11	1,207.45	1,238.36	1,269.83	1,344.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.49%	6.49%	6.49%
Growth Rate	2.93%	3.93%	4.93%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,067.01	1,077.38	1,087.75
Year 2 PV (M)	1,018.06	1,037.94	1,058.01
Year 3 PV (M)	971.19	999.77	1,028.91
Year 4 PV (M)	926.31	962.84	1,000.43
Year 5 PV (M)	883.35	927.10	972.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)	26,767.29	28,093.02	29,470.76
Equity Value (M)	31,633.22	33,098.05	34,618.42
Shares Outstanding (M)	327.63	327.63	327.63
Fair Value	$96.55	$101.02	$105.66
Upside / Downside	201.82%	215.79%	230.30%

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Alupar Investimento S.A. (ALUP11.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener