DDM Analysis: ALSN

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$94.81 - $156.47	$122.16
Multi-Stage	$119.25 - $130.82	$124.92
Blended Fair Value	$123.54
Current Price	$84.88
Upside	45.55%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.57%	-0.51%	1.02	0.97	0.94	0.95	0.91	0.85	0.94	1.04	1.18	1.23
YoY Growth	-	-	4.82%	3.75%	-1.23%	3.85%	6.85%	-8.75%	-10.11%	-11.53%	-4.73%	15.28%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.06%	1.20%	2.07%	2.41%	2.23%	2.62%	2.04%	2.66%	3.26%	4.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	699.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	90.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	609.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	139.80	87.38	52.43
Cash Retained (M)	609.00	609.00	609.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-139.80	-87.38	-52.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)	469.20	521.63	556.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	85.55	85.55	85.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share	5.48	6.10	6.51
LTM Dividend per Share	1.05	1.05	1.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	5.48	6.10	6.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend	6.54	7.15	7.56
WACC / Discount Rate	8.57%	8.57%	8.57%
Growth Rate	1.57%	2.57%	3.57%
Fair Value	$94.81	$122.16	$156.47
Upside / Downside	11.70%	43.92%	84.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	699.00	716.97	735.41	754.32	773.71	793.61	817.42
Payout Ratio	12.88%	28.30%	43.73%	59.15%	74.58%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	90.00	202.91	321.56	446.18	577.00	714.25	756.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.57%	8.57%	8.57%
Growth Rate	1.57%	2.57%	3.57%
Year 1 PV (M)	185.06	186.88	188.71
Year 2 PV (M)	267.49	272.78	278.12
Year 3 PV (M)	338.51	348.61	358.90
Year 4 PV (M)	399.26	415.21	431.64
Year 5 PV (M)	450.76	473.39	496.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)	8,560.97	8,990.77	9,437.67
Equity Value (M)	10,202.04	10,687.65	11,191.97
Shares Outstanding (M)	85.55	85.55	85.55
Fair Value	$119.25	$124.92	$130.82
Upside / Downside	40.49%	47.18%	54.12%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

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Sector

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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