DDM Analysis: ALRFG.PA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.33 - $5.10	$4.16
Multi-Stage	$7.40 - $8.13	$7.75
Blended Fair Value	$5.96
Current Price	$4.60
Upside	29.50%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.09	0.09	0.06	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	37.22%	31.07%	5,951.66%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.28%	1.66%	1.11%	1.14%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	9.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	7.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2.89

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1.99	1.25	0.75
Cash Retained (M)	2.89	2.89	2.89
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1.99	-1.25	-0.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)	0.89	1.64	2.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	26.92	26.92	26.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.06	0.08
LTM Dividend per Share	0.26	0.26	0.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.06	0.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.30	0.32	0.34
WACC / Discount Rate	6.71%	6.71%	6.71%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$3.33	$4.16	$5.10
Upside / Downside	-27.56%	-9.58%	10.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	9.96	9.86	9.76	9.67	9.57	9.47	9.76
Payout Ratio	71.02%	74.81%	78.61%	82.41%	86.20%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	7.08	7.38	7.68	7.97	8.25	8.53	9.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.71%	6.71%	6.71%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	6.85	6.92	6.99
Year 2 PV (M)	6.61	6.74	6.88
Year 3 PV (M)	6.36	6.56	6.76
Year 4 PV (M)	6.11	6.36	6.62
Year 5 PV (M)	5.86	6.16	6.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)	167.31	176.03	185.10
Equity Value (M)	199.09	208.77	218.82
Shares Outstanding (M)	26.92	26.92	26.92
Fair Value	$7.40	$7.75	$8.13
Upside / Downside	60.76%	68.57%	76.69%

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Financial Statements

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Racing Force S.p.A. (ALRFG.PA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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