Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Herige (ALHRG.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.30 - $366.16$171.22
Multi-Stage$109.27 - $119.57$114.33
Blended Fair Value$142.77
Current Price$22.00
Upside548.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.48%5.32%1.881.771.771.220.000.740.490.490.000.34
YoY Growth--5.99%0.08%45.08%0.00%-100.00%50.67%0.71%0.00%-100.00%-69.60%
Dividend Yield--7.93%5.37%5.44%2.68%0.00%2.49%2.09%1.20%0.00%1.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.151.340.81
Cash Retained (M)0.260.260.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.15-1.34-0.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.89-1.08-0.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.872.872.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.66-0.38-0.19
LTM Dividend per Share3.653.653.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.66-0.38-0.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.003.283.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.32%4.32%5.32%
Fair Value$103.30$171.22$366.16
Upside / Downside369.55%678.29%1,564.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10.7511.2211.7012.2112.7313.2813.68
Payout Ratio97.55%96.04%94.53%93.02%91.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.4910.7711.0611.3511.6511.9612.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.32%4.32%5.32%
Year 1 PV (M)10.0410.1310.23
Year 2 PV (M)9.609.799.97
Year 3 PV (M)9.189.459.72
Year 4 PV (M)8.789.129.48
Year 5 PV (M)8.398.809.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)267.76280.97294.70
Equity Value (M)313.74328.26343.33
Shares Outstanding (M)2.872.872.87
Fair Value$109.27$114.33$119.57
Upside / Downside396.67%419.66%443.52%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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