DDM Analysis: ALG

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$263.04 - $876.32	$429.11
Multi-Stage	$167.75 - $183.48	$175.47
Blended Fair Value	$302.29
Current Price	$190.90
Upside	58.35%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	17.20%	14.10%	1.03	0.87	0.71	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.42	0.38	0.34	0.30
YoY Growth	-	-	18.66%	22.65%	29.00%	8.21%	8.85%	9.80%	11.05%	12.15%	13.40%	9.01%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.58%	0.41%	0.38%	0.38%	0.33%	0.53%	0.43%	0.35%	0.45%	0.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	116.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	13.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)	102.45

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	23.27	14.55	8.73
Cash Retained (M)	102.45	102.45	102.45
(-) Cash Required (M)	-23.27	-14.55	-8.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)	79.18	87.91	93.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	12.07	12.07	12.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share	6.56	7.28	7.77
LTM Dividend per Share	1.15	1.15	1.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	6.56	7.28	7.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend	7.71	8.44	8.92
WACC / Discount Rate	8.59%	8.59%	8.59%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$263.04	$429.11	$876.32
Upside / Downside	37.79%	124.78%	359.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	116.37	123.93	131.99	140.57	149.71	159.44	164.22
Payout Ratio	11.96%	27.57%	43.18%	58.78%	74.39%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	13.92	34.17	56.99	82.63	111.37	143.49	151.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.59%	8.59%	8.59%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	31.17	31.46	31.76
Year 2 PV (M)	47.42	48.32	49.24
Year 3 PV (M)	62.72	64.53	66.36
Year 4 PV (M)	77.12	80.08	83.13
Year 5 PV (M)	90.64	95.02	99.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,715.15	1,798.00	1,884.01
Equity Value (M)	2,024.22	2,117.41	2,214.06
Shares Outstanding (M)	12.07	12.07	12.07
Fair Value	$167.75	$175.47	$183.48
Upside / Downside	-12.13%	-8.08%	-3.89%

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Sector

Alamo Group Inc. (ALG)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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