DDM Analysis: ADT

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.85 - $6.94	$5.87
Multi-Stage	$7.71 - $8.47	$8.08
Blended Fair Value	$6.98
Current Price	$8.71
Upside	-19.87%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-20.24%	0.00%	0.20	0.14	0.14	0.13	0.12	0.62	0.09	0.82	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	41.75%	1.15%	9.26%	6.42%	-80.64%	610.94%	-89.41%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.45%	2.17%	1.92%	1.68%	1.42%	14.31%	1.33%	10.35%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	640.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	191.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)	448.71

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	128.11	80.07	48.04
Cash Retained (M)	448.71	448.71	448.71
(-) Cash Required (M)	-128.11	-80.07	-48.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)	320.59	368.64	400.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	913.55	913.55	913.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.35	0.40	0.44
LTM Dividend per Share	0.21	0.21	0.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.35	0.40	0.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.56	0.61	0.65
WACC / Discount Rate	9.34%	9.34%	9.34%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$4.85	$5.87	$6.94
Upside / Downside	-44.34%	-32.56%	-20.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	640.56	634.15	627.81	621.53	615.32	609.16	627.44
Payout Ratio	29.95%	41.96%	53.97%	65.98%	77.99%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	191.85	266.09	338.83	410.09	479.89	548.25	580.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.34%	9.34%	9.34%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	240.91	243.36	245.82
Year 2 PV (M)	277.72	283.42	289.17
Year 3 PV (M)	304.31	313.72	323.32
Year 4 PV (M)	322.40	335.76	349.53
Year 5 PV (M)	333.46	350.82	368.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,568.07	5,858.01	6,159.90
Equity Value (M)	7,046.86	7,385.09	7,736.66
Shares Outstanding (M)	913.55	913.55	913.55
Fair Value	$7.71	$8.08	$8.47
Upside / Downside	-11.44%	-7.19%	-2.77%

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ADT Inc. (ADT)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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