DDM Analysis: AAK.ST

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$268.00 - $613.74	$390.77
Multi-Stage	$195.42 - $213.23	$204.16
Blended Fair Value	$297.47
Current Price	$244.60
Upside	21.61%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	15.40%	14.40%	3.68	2.74	2.48	2.26	2.06	1.80	1.58	1.42	1.26	1.09
YoY Growth	-	-	34.45%	10.53%	9.49%	10.07%	14.29%	13.83%	11.35%	12.80%	15.49%	13.60%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.32%	1.07%	1.32%	1.29%	1.04%	1.11%	1.14%	1.16%	1.28%	1.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,409.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,298.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,111.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	681.80	426.13	255.68
Cash Retained (M)	2,111.00	2,111.00	2,111.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-681.80	-426.13	-255.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,429.20	1,684.88	1,855.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	260.62	260.62	260.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share	5.48	6.46	7.12
LTM Dividend per Share	4.98	4.98	4.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share	5.48	6.46	7.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend	10.46	11.45	12.10
WACC / Discount Rate	9.62%	9.62%	9.62%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$268.00	$390.77	$613.74
Upside / Downside	9.57%	59.76%	150.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,409.00	3,630.59	3,866.57	4,117.90	4,385.56	4,670.63	4,810.74
Payout Ratio	38.08%	48.46%	58.85%	69.23%	79.62%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,298.00	1,759.40	2,275.30	2,850.83	3,491.57	4,203.56	4,449.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.62%	9.62%	9.62%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,589.94	1,605.01	1,620.08
Year 2 PV (M)	1,858.11	1,893.50	1,929.23
Year 3 PV (M)	2,103.88	2,164.27	2,225.81
Year 4 PV (M)	2,328.55	2,418.10	2,510.21
Year 5 PV (M)	2,533.37	2,655.73	2,782.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)	40,515.96	42,472.89	44,504.73
Equity Value (M)	50,929.80	53,209.50	55,572.82
Shares Outstanding (M)	260.62	260.62	260.62
Fair Value	$195.42	$204.16	$213.23
Upside / Downside	-20.11%	-16.53%	-12.82%

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Financial Statements

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AAK AB (publ.) (AAK.ST)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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