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Definitive Analysis

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WEILONG Delicious Global Holdings Ltd (9985.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$100.28 - $191.36$179.34
Multi-Stage$30.84 - $33.71$32.25
Blended Fair Value$105.79
Current Price$13.23
Upside699.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS22.67%0.00%0.370.360.000.260.000.130.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--2.92%0.00%-100.00%41,989.62%-99.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.45%5.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,234.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,954.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)279.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)446.96279.35167.61
Cash Retained (M)279.93279.93279.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-446.96-279.35-167.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)-167.030.58112.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,322.532,322.532,322.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.000.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.000.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$100.28$179.34$191.36
Upside / Downside658.00%1,255.53%1,346.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,234.822,380.082,534.782,699.542,875.013,061.893,153.75
Payout Ratio87.47%87.98%88.48%88.99%89.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,954.882,093.982,242.892,402.312,572.992,755.702,917.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,951.201,969.691,988.19
Year 2 PV (M)1,947.451,984.542,021.99
Year 3 PV (M)1,943.651,999.452,056.30
Year 4 PV (M)1,939.792,014.392,091.12
Year 5 PV (M)1,935.882,029.392,126.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)61,917.0264,907.6368,012.70
Equity Value (M)71,634.9974,905.0978,296.77
Shares Outstanding (M)2,322.532,322.532,322.53
Fair Value$30.84$32.25$33.71
Upside / Downside133.13%143.78%154.81%

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