DDM Analysis: 9937.TW

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$19.12 - $28.29	$23.51
Multi-Stage	$32.21 - $35.22	$33.69
Blended Fair Value	$28.60
Current Price	$61.80
Upside	-53.73%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.98%	5.76%	2.10	2.10	2.10	2.31	2.00	2.00	2.00	2.00	1.40	1.20
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	-8.70%	15.00%	0.00%	-0.02%	0.02%	42.86%	16.67%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.42%	3.18%	3.41%	4.68%	3.97%	4.80%	4.84%	4.93%	3.52%	3.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	734.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	648.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)	85.85

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	146.97	91.85	55.11
Cash Retained (M)	85.85	85.85	85.85
(-) Cash Required (M)	-146.97	-91.85	-55.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-61.12	-6.01	30.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	308.35	308.35	308.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.20	-0.02	0.10
LTM Dividend per Share	2.10	2.10	2.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.20	-0.02	0.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.91	2.09	2.20
WACC / Discount Rate	8.85%	8.85%	8.85%
Growth Rate	-1.02%	-0.02%	0.98%
Fair Value	$19.12	$23.51	$28.29
Upside / Downside	-69.06%	-61.96%	-54.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	734.84	734.69	734.55	734.41	734.26	734.12	756.14
Payout Ratio	88.32%	88.65%	88.99%	89.33%	89.66%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	648.99	651.34	653.68	656.02	658.37	660.71	699.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.85%	8.85%	8.85%
Growth Rate	-1.02%	-0.02%	0.98%
Year 1 PV (M)	592.40	598.39	604.37
Year 2 PV (M)	540.74	551.72	562.81
Year 3 PV (M)	493.58	508.69	524.11
Year 4 PV (M)	450.52	469.00	488.05
Year 5 PV (M)	411.21	432.41	454.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,443.18	7,826.85	8,226.18
Equity Value (M)	9,931.64	10,387.06	10,859.99
Shares Outstanding (M)	308.35	308.35	308.35
Fair Value	$32.21	$33.69	$35.22
Upside / Downside	-47.88%	-45.49%	-43.01%

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Financial Statements

Fundamentals

Valuations

Miscellaneous

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

National Petroleum Co., Ltd. (9937.TW)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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