DDM Analysis: 9633.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$20.07 - $30.39	$24.93
Multi-Stage	$42.00 - $46.16	$44.04
Blended Fair Value	$34.48
Current Price	$36.58
Upside	-5.74%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	-2.55%	0.00%	0.75	0.68	0.45	0.17	0.71	0.85	0.04	0.03	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	10.31%	51.14%	164.61%	-76.04%	-16.86%	1,976.50%	25.87%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.35%	1.70%	1.16%	0.41%	1.54%	2.89%	0.14%	0.12%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	26,049.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	16,081.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)	9,968.30

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5,209.89	3,256.18	1,953.71
Cash Retained (M)	9,968.30	9,968.30	9,968.30
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5,209.89	-3,256.18	-1,953.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)	4,758.41	6,712.12	8,014.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	11,246.47	11,246.47	11,246.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.42	0.60	0.71
LTM Dividend per Share	1.43	1.43	1.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.42	0.60	0.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.85	2.03	2.14
WACC / Discount Rate	7.05%	7.05%	7.05%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$20.07	$24.93	$30.39
Upside / Downside	-45.14%	-31.86%	-16.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	26,049.46	25,788.97	25,531.08	25,275.77	25,023.01	24,772.78	25,515.96
Payout Ratio	61.73%	67.39%	73.04%	78.69%	84.35%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	16,081.16	17,378.30	18,647.88	19,890.33	21,106.07	22,295.50	23,602.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.05%	7.05%	7.05%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	16,069.92	16,233.90	16,397.88
Year 2 PV (M)	15,945.66	16,272.74	16,603.15
Year 3 PV (M)	15,727.57	16,213.96	16,710.27
Year 4 PV (M)	15,432.41	16,072.01	16,731.29
Year 5 PV (M)	15,074.75	15,859.73	16,677.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)	394,088.83	414,609.95	435,977.17
Equity Value (M)	472,339.14	495,262.29	519,096.82
Shares Outstanding (M)	11,246.47	11,246.47	11,246.47
Fair Value	$42.00	$44.04	$46.16
Upside / Downside	14.81%	20.39%	26.18%

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Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. (9633.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener