Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Arabian Food & Dairy Factories Company (9536.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.68 - $78.49$64.97
Multi-Stage$100.65 - $110.64$105.55
Blended Fair Value$85.26
Current Price$68.95
Upside23.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-16.25%0.00%1.502.543.173.184.893.640.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---40.94%-19.95%-0.18%-35.04%34.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.67%2.75%3.53%3.44%5.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.821.140.68
Cash Retained (M)5.205.205.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.82-1.14-0.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.384.064.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.411.411.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.402.883.20
LTM Dividend per Share2.772.772.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.402.883.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.175.655.97
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$52.68$64.97$78.49
Upside / Downside-23.59%-5.77%13.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9.119.028.938.848.758.668.92
Payout Ratio42.88%52.31%61.73%71.15%80.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.914.725.516.297.057.808.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4.344.384.43
Year 2 PV (M)4.664.764.85
Year 3 PV (M)4.895.055.20
Year 4 PV (M)5.055.265.47
Year 5 PV (M)5.135.405.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)117.84123.97130.36
Equity Value (M)141.91148.82156.00
Shares Outstanding (M)1.411.411.41
Fair Value$100.65$105.55$110.64
Upside / Downside45.97%53.07%60.46%

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