DDM Analysis: 9201.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5,035.71 - $10,511.29	$7,108.83
Multi-Stage	$8,590.81 - $9,444.44	$9,009.42
Blended Fair Value	$8,059.13
Current Price	$2,983.00
Upside	170.17%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-0.58%	2.49%	84.89	54.80	0.00	0.02	0.07	87.37	90.13	118.53	99.59	86.34
YoY Growth	-	-	54.91%	1,196,100.00%	-71.43%	-77.42%	-99.92%	-3.05%	-23.97%	19.02%	15.35%	30.03%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.89%	2.15%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	4.50%	2.57%	3.02%	2.87%	2.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	124,807.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	37,500.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	87,307.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	24,961.40	15,600.88	9,360.53
Cash Retained (M)	87,307.00	87,307.00	87,307.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-24,961.40	-15,600.88	-9,360.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)	62,345.60	71,706.13	77,946.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	436.58	436.58	436.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share	142.80	164.24	178.54
LTM Dividend per Share	85.89	85.89	85.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share	142.80	164.24	178.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend	228.70	250.14	264.43
WACC / Discount Rate	5.80%	5.80%	5.80%
Growth Rate	1.21%	2.21%	3.21%
Fair Value	$5,035.71	$7,108.83	$10,511.29
Upside / Downside	68.81%	138.31%	252.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	124,807.00	127,563.35	130,380.58	133,260.02	136,203.06	139,211.10	143,387.43
Payout Ratio	30.05%	42.04%	54.03%	66.02%	78.01%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	37,500.00	53,623.95	70,441.80	87,976.34	106,251.03	125,289.99	132,633.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.80%	5.80%	5.80%
Growth Rate	1.21%	2.21%	3.21%
Year 1 PV (M)	50,186.05	50,681.91	51,177.78
Year 2 PV (M)	61,699.10	62,924.37	64,161.69
Year 3 PV (M)	72,117.13	74,276.00	76,477.53
Year 4 PV (M)	81,513.55	84,783.22	88,150.29
Year 5 PV (M)	89,957.47	94,490.32	99,204.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,395,122.30	3,566,198.86	3,744,103.24
Equity Value (M)	3,750,595.59	3,933,354.69	4,123,274.62
Shares Outstanding (M)	436.58	436.58	436.58
Fair Value	$8,590.81	$9,009.42	$9,444.44
Upside / Downside	187.99%	202.03%	216.61%

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Financial Statements

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Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. (9201.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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