Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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TOBA, Inc. (7472.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,983.22 - $6,652.31$5,157.69
Multi-Stage$4,054.74 - $4,435.64$4,241.68
Blended Fair Value$4,699.68
Current Price$4,160.00
Upside12.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.53%7.32%121.77125.13129.46109.64131.57131.57120.6071.27109.6465.45
YoY Growth---2.68%-3.35%18.08%-16.67%0.00%9.09%69.23%-35.00%67.52%8.92%
Dividend Yield--3.34%3.37%4.09%3.89%5.01%4.72%3.90%2.22%5.14%3.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,295.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)240.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,055.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)259.18161.9997.19
Cash Retained (M)1,055.551,055.551,055.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-259.18-161.99-97.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)796.36893.56958.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.953.953.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share201.51226.10242.50
LTM Dividend per Share60.8260.8260.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share201.51226.10242.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend262.33286.92303.32
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate3.20%4.20%5.20%
Fair Value$3,983.22$5,157.69$6,652.31
Upside / Downside-4.25%23.98%59.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,295.921,350.391,407.151,466.291,527.921,592.141,639.90
Payout Ratio18.55%32.84%47.13%61.42%75.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)240.37443.45663.17900.591,156.781,432.931,516.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate3.20%4.20%5.20%
Year 1 PV (M)399.27403.14407.01
Year 2 PV (M)537.61548.08558.65
Year 3 PV (M)657.33676.62696.29
Year 4 PV (M)760.20790.10820.87
Year 5 PV (M)847.85889.73933.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,822.1113,455.4714,113.62
Equity Value (M)16,024.3716,763.1417,529.68
Shares Outstanding (M)3.953.953.95
Fair Value$4,054.74$4,241.68$4,435.64
Upside / Downside-2.53%1.96%6.63%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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