Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Cica-Huntek Chemical Technology Taiwan Co., Ltd. (6725.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$199.79 - $285.24$241.74
Multi-Stage$313.17 - $343.78$328.18
Blended Fair Value$284.96
Current Price$217.00
Upside31.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%6.911.680.990.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--311.76%70.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.44%1.47%1.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)981.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)287.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)694.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)196.37122.7373.64
Cash Retained (M)694.75694.75694.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-196.37-122.73-73.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)498.38572.02621.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.4433.4433.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share14.9017.1018.57
LTM Dividend per Share8.588.588.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share14.9017.1018.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend23.4925.6927.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.52%9.52%9.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$199.79$241.74$285.24
Upside / Downside-7.93%11.40%31.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)981.85972.03962.31952.69943.16933.73961.74
Payout Ratio29.24%41.39%53.54%65.70%77.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)287.10402.35515.26625.88734.23840.35889.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.52%9.52%9.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)363.66367.37371.08
Year 2 PV (M)420.94429.57438.29
Year 3 PV (M)462.14476.43491.02
Year 4 PV (M)490.02510.33531.26
Year 5 PV (M)506.92533.31560.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,229.558,658.099,104.29
Equity Value (M)10,473.2310,975.1011,496.74
Shares Outstanding (M)33.4433.4433.44
Fair Value$313.17$328.18$343.78
Upside / Downside44.32%51.23%58.42%

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