DDM Analysis: 6290.TWO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$56.31 - $84.95	$69.82
Multi-Stage	$74.71 - $81.71	$78.14
Blended Fair Value	$73.98
Current Price	$96.20
Upside	-23.10%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	17.15%	9.50%	2.93	2.02	1.84	3.22	3.22	1.33	1.32	2.18	1.63	1.51
YoY Growth	-	-	45.08%	9.79%	-42.86%	-0.09%	142.65%	0.95%	-39.62%	33.53%	7.96%	27.78%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.53%	2.20%	2.68%	6.15%	5.15%	2.62%	2.64%	4.68%	5.18%	4.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,027.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	470.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)	556.77

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	205.50	128.44	77.06
Cash Retained (M)	556.77	556.77	556.77
(-) Cash Required (M)	-205.50	-128.44	-77.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)	351.27	428.33	479.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	160.61	160.61	160.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.19	2.67	2.99
LTM Dividend per Share	2.93	2.93	2.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.19	2.67	2.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.12	5.60	5.92
WACC / Discount Rate	9.91%	9.91%	9.91%
Growth Rate	0.75%	1.75%	2.75%
Fair Value	$56.31	$69.82	$84.95
Upside / Downside	-41.47%	-27.42%	-11.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,027.51	1,045.46	1,063.74	1,082.33	1,101.24	1,120.49	1,154.11
Payout Ratio	45.81%	54.65%	63.49%	72.33%	81.16%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	470.74	571.36	675.35	782.80	893.80	1,008.44	1,067.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.91%	9.91%	9.91%
Growth Rate	0.75%	1.75%	2.75%
Year 1 PV (M)	514.75	519.86	524.97
Year 2 PV (M)	548.17	559.10	570.15
Year 3 PV (M)	572.44	589.65	607.21
Year 4 PV (M)	588.86	612.59	637.03
Year 5 PV (M)	598.57	628.87	660.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)	9,176.49	9,641.04	10,124.22
Equity Value (M)	11,999.27	12,551.11	13,123.96
Shares Outstanding (M)	160.61	160.61	160.61
Fair Value	$74.71	$78.14	$81.71
Upside / Downside	-22.34%	-18.77%	-15.06%

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Financial Statements

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Longwell Company (6290.TWO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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