DDM Analysis: 603967.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$6.43 - $9.51	$7.90
Multi-Stage	$6.24 - $6.74	$6.49
Blended Fair Value	$7.20
Current Price	$11.13
Upside	-35.35%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	12.80%	7.93%	0.55	0.48	0.41	0.30	0.29	0.30	0.24	0.24	0.39	0.25
YoY Growth	-	-	13.19%	16.56%	40.35%	1.93%	-3.27%	22.55%	-0.01%	-37.85%	57.97%	-2.38%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.15%	5.11%	4.21%	3.02%	2.92%	2.78%	1.44%	1.44%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	258.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	219.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)	39.52

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	51.76	32.35	19.41
Cash Retained (M)	39.52	39.52	39.52
(-) Cash Required (M)	-51.76	-32.35	-19.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-12.25	7.17	20.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	346.18	346.18	346.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.04	0.02	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.63	0.63	0.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.04	0.02	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.60	0.65	0.69
WACC / Discount Rate	15.31%	15.31%	15.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$6.43	$7.90	$9.51
Upside / Downside	-42.23%	-28.98%	-14.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	258.81	275.63	293.55	312.63	332.95	354.59	365.23
Payout Ratio	84.73%	85.79%	86.84%	87.89%	88.95%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	219.29	236.45	254.92	274.78	296.15	319.13	337.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	15.31%	15.31%	15.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	203.13	205.05	206.98
Year 2 PV (M)	188.12	191.70	195.32
Year 3 PV (M)	174.20	179.20	184.29
Year 4 PV (M)	161.28	167.49	173.87
Year 5 PV (M)	149.30	156.52	164.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,283.53	1,345.52	1,409.89
Equity Value (M)	2,159.56	2,245.48	2,334.35
Shares Outstanding (M)	346.18	346.18	346.18
Fair Value	$6.24	$6.49	$6.74
Upside / Downside	-43.95%	-41.72%	-39.41%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

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Sector

China Master Logistics Co., Ltd. (603967.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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