DDM Analysis: 603867.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$26.58 - $70.12	$40.57
Multi-Stage	$18.53 - $20.23	$19.36
Blended Fair Value	$29.97
Current Price	$33.20
Upside	-9.74%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	21.63%	12.01%	0.58	0.53	0.42	0.34	0.21	0.22	0.18	0.16	0.12	0.14
YoY Growth	-	-	9.38%	26.72%	22.66%	64.15%	-4.63%	20.62%	11.58%	37.85%	-18.33%	-22.89%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.26%	1.91%	1.17%	1.43%	1.17%	0.88%	1.00%	0.90%	0.65%	0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	231.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	90.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)	141.70

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	46.34	28.96	17.38
Cash Retained (M)	141.70	141.70	141.70
(-) Cash Required (M)	-46.34	-28.96	-17.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)	95.36	112.74	124.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	203.61	203.61	203.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.47	0.55	0.61
LTM Dividend per Share	0.44	0.44	0.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.47	0.55	0.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.91	1.00	1.05
WACC / Discount Rate	9.11%	9.11%	9.11%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$26.58	$40.57	$70.12
Upside / Downside	-19.95%	22.20%	111.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	231.70	246.77	262.81	279.89	298.08	317.46	326.98
Payout Ratio	38.85%	49.08%	59.31%	69.54%	79.77%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	90.01	121.10	155.86	194.63	237.78	285.71	302.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.11%	9.11%	9.11%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	109.95	110.99	112.03
Year 2 PV (M)	128.47	130.91	133.38
Year 3 PV (M)	145.64	149.82	154.08
Year 4 PV (M)	161.53	167.74	174.13
Year 5 PV (M)	176.21	184.73	193.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,051.14	3,198.52	3,351.53
Equity Value (M)	3,772.94	3,942.70	4,118.71
Shares Outstanding (M)	203.61	203.61	203.61
Fair Value	$18.53	$19.36	$20.23
Upside / Downside	-44.19%	-41.68%	-39.07%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Zhejiang Xinhua Chemical Co.,Ltd (603867.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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