Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Toly Bread Co.,Ltd. (603866.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.98 - $2.93$2.43
Multi-Stage$2.92 - $3.19$3.05
Blended Fair Value$2.74
Current Price$5.40
Upside-49.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.78%14.00%0.320.350.360.430.410.290.240.080.160.05
YoY Growth---8.22%-3.59%-14.72%3.66%39.66%25.22%178.81%-45.88%199.45%-40.03%
Dividend Yield--5.64%5.45%2.80%3.56%2.02%1.40%1.33%0.57%1.17%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)385.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)232.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)152.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)77.0248.1428.88
Cash Retained (M)152.56152.56152.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-77.02-48.14-28.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.54104.42123.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.211,600.211,600.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate9.51%9.51%9.51%
Growth Rate-0.22%0.78%1.78%
Fair Value$1.98$2.43$2.93
Upside / Downside-63.42%-54.96%-45.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)385.11388.13391.17394.24397.33400.45412.47
Payout Ratio60.39%66.31%72.23%78.15%84.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)232.55257.36282.55308.12334.07360.41381.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.51%9.51%9.51%
Growth Rate-0.22%0.78%1.78%
Year 1 PV (M)232.68235.01237.34
Year 2 PV (M)230.95235.60240.30
Year 3 PV (M)227.70234.61241.67
Year 4 PV (M)223.20232.28241.64
Year 5 PV (M)217.71228.84240.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,540.173,721.153,909.46
Equity Value (M)4,672.414,887.505,110.83
Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.211,600.211,600.21
Fair Value$2.92$3.05$3.19
Upside / Downside-45.93%-43.44%-40.85%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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