Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Cheng Yi Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (603811.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.96 - $31.30$20.20
Multi-Stage$10.24 - $11.17$10.70
Blended Fair Value$15.45
Current Price$12.95
Upside19.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.44%14.61%0.240.230.210.190.160.110.110.110.150.14
YoY Growth--3.71%7.52%9.41%20.02%46.17%-0.19%1.57%-27.41%4.61%137.24%
Dividend Yield--2.75%2.80%1.57%1.56%1.24%1.24%1.56%1.40%0.99%2.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)226.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)142.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.2728.2916.98
Cash Retained (M)142.26142.26142.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.27-28.29-16.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)96.99113.96125.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)324.98324.98324.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.96$20.20$31.30
Upside / Downside7.76%56.02%141.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)226.35241.06256.73273.42291.19310.12319.42
Payout Ratio37.15%47.72%58.29%68.86%79.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84.09115.04149.65188.28231.30279.11295.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)103.87104.86105.84
Year 2 PV (M)122.01124.33126.67
Year 3 PV (M)138.59142.57146.63
Year 4 PV (M)153.73159.64165.72
Year 5 PV (M)167.50175.59183.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,641.592,769.182,901.65
Equity Value (M)3,327.283,476.163,630.50
Shares Outstanding (M)324.98324.98324.98
Fair Value$10.24$10.70$11.17
Upside / Downside-20.94%-17.40%-13.73%

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